Zimbabwe: Covid-19 Deaths, Infections Start Edging Down

Covid-19 infection and death rates could be inching off the plateaus they reached over the past week if the decreases in both rates recorded yesterday are maintained.

While daily new infections and deaths rise and fall, partly from delays in communicating results from some centres, the rolling average over the past seven days gives a far more accurate picture of how the fourth wave is progressing. Zimbabwe has been standing still, not getting worse but not getting much better.

Yesterday saw the number of deaths drop to 14, a high number but well below the average of around 20 a day seen since over the past week. The seven-day rolling average has now fallen to 17,9. This average had seen very little movement since Wednesday last week when it climbed to 19,9. For seven days it moved in a tight band between 18,9 and 20,3, with the Tuesday figure being 19,7.

Now it could be coming down. To some extent this was expected. Death rates tend to follow behind infection rates around two to three weeks later.

Since infections peaked around three weeks ago the past week should as a result have seen death rates plateauing and then falling, as that is what could now be happening.

However the infection rate had also been almost stable since Monday last week after falling almost as fast since mid-December as it soared from late November. But that fast fall was suddenly arrested at the start of last week and until yesterday the seven-day average moved around the 1 500 daily mark, a very high infection rate even if only a third of the peak of the fourth wave.